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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Is this tropical disturbance the next big thing?

Today's rain stayed south and southeast of Roanoke for the most part. Some of it made it as far north as Franklin County, but it was a pretty good rain for some dry areas of the Carolinas and Southside Virginia. A few more slow-moving storms are dropping locally heavy rain in West Virginia and far western Virginia this afternoon; a few of these storms are even becoming severe for a brief time. We can't rule out one or two of these drifting into the Roanoke or New River valleys, but this activity will diminish rapidly after sunset.

nhcmap0813small.gif

Way out near the Leeward Islands is a small disturbance the National Hurricane Center has been watching pulse up and down for days. This tropical wave -- an area of showers and thunderstorms with no discernible low-level circulation -- is moving west-northwest. The hurricane center rates it as having a moderate chance to develop into at least a tropical depression. More importantly -- the Climate Prediction Center has already circled Florida for a threat of heavy rain about this time next week. Beyond that, it's possible that the moisture from this wave -- which could be a tropical depression or even a tropical storm or hurricane by then -- will be swept northward on the west side of a high pressure system toward our direction. The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14-day precipitation map already reflects that possibility.

Even the National Weather Service in Blacksburg is noting in its most recent area forecast discussion that the "tropical wave currently east of the Leeward Islands is forecast to potentially make an impact on our weather toward the middle to end of next week."

It's still a long way off, folks, but something to keep an eye on. In the meantime, there'll be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms on a few days, with near-normal temperatures (high in the 80s, lows in the 60s), but no drought-easing rainfall.

Comments

# 1

[August 14, 2008 4:37 PM]

Brandon R.

That disturbance is starting to look more organized.

I know we need the rain so best scenario would be a depression/weak storm coming ashore and then heading our way.

# 2

[August 14, 2008 8:49 PM]

Kevin Myatt

... that's what I'm writing about in Weather Journal for the paper tomorrow ...

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Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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