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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

A trend toward snow

Computer model runs through the day have trended toward a somewhat weaker, more southerly track for Thursday's storm. If this verifies, it would mean more snow in our area and less sleet and ice, though that snow probably won't be extremely heavy. An early guess would be a 2-4-inch type snow, mixing with sleet or freezing rain during Thursday evening.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has now put all of Southwest Virginia in a slight risk for heavy snow (4-plus inches) on Day 2, which would be 7 p.m. Wednesday through 7 p.m. Thursday. (If the linked map looks different than what I've described, there may have been an update; click here for the entire HPC Winter Weather page for the latest information.)

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has also trended its forecast toward snow; here is the latest forecast for the Roanoke Valley.

There's still many miles before we can sleep on this one, but a moderate winter storm looks likely for Thursday.

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Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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