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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Cold air may be too stale for winter storm on Sunday

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This map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows the projected path of a low pressure system on Sunday. The line is the projected track as of earlier today, with the circles representing a margin of error for the points showing forecasted low position at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Sunday. During the closing days of December, this would typically be considered a nearly textbook track for a significant winter storm in our area. By the low staying south and east, it would throw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic back over colder air that builds in to the north and west of the track. But the major issue that may keep such a scenario from happening is the quality of cold air. It will be cold on Sunday, but there is nothing to force in a deeper, colder Arctic air mass. (That will come along a few days later.) The result will be a stale, shallow cold air mass with temperatures likely hovering a little above freezing in most areas. So this textbook track for a winter storm may yield primarily a cold rain on Sunday, with some freezing rain, sleet or snow mixing in at a few locations. There is still some time to monitor it for changes, but the track may actually end up being farther northwest, anyway, and therefore even a little warmer.

What it will deliver is needed rain. Here are projected rainfall maps from tonight's system and the one that follows on Sunday.

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Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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