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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Precipitation will be tardy or absent

Posted Feb21, 2008 at 08:52 PM

UPDATE 12:55 a.m. Friday Feb. 22: New precipitation is firing over Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee as I write this. This could move into our area later this morning, though it's still doubtful that this will be much more than a minor ice/sleet event. But it will have to be monitored in case heavier precipitation moves in while it's still below freezing. If rain arrives much later today, it could well warm above freezing. It's a very disorganized winter storm, sort of symbolic of a strange winter.

radar0222.gif

As the great radar split continues on this poorly organized storm system -- rather, two upper-level storm systems, barely interacting with one another -- it's obvious at this point that widespread wintry precipitation will not be beginning before midnight. A few flakes, pellets or sprinkles maybe, but not much. There really is a big question whether it will do much of anything, but as better atmospheric lift arrives after midnight and into Friday, we may well eventually see some light precipitation. Temperatures are cold enough that any little bit can make things slick, but at this point it looks like the chances of a major or even significant winter storm are closer to none than to slim.


Comments

# 1

[February 21, 2008 10:19 PM]

Other John
I've been watching this all day and felt like it would not amount to hardly anything, because I've seen this pattern several times in this area. I'll be very surprised if we get anything more than a few sprinkles and pellets of sleet. I had a few sprinkles hit my windshield this evening, and that might have been about the bulk of it. While it's not passed us yet, this looks like another winter storm bust.
# 2

[February 21, 2008 10:24 PM]

Kevin Myatt
Can't argue with you John. We might catch the southern edge of the stuff dragging through Kentucky, or the new stuff firing in Arkansas and Mississippi sometime Friday. This does not look like a big storm, and may yet end up being a complete bust, but I am concerned about icy patches on roads at rush hour if we get just a little bit of rain in the morning. That's often more dangerous than solid ice because people speed up thinking the roads are dry and hit ice.
# 3

[February 21, 2008 10:49 PM]

Other John
I hear you on that Kevin. If it were possible to have either snow & sleet or just rain, I don't think I'd mind the winters here too much. There is far too much freezing rain here for my liking, but hopefully, this storm won't deliver much of that. Time will tell...
# 4

[February 22, 2008 7:35 AM]

Other John
Looks at if we dodged the proverbial ice bullet for the most part. Now, hopefully when the slug of moisture coming up through Tennesse and Kentucky gets here, we'll be above freezing and can escape the potential for freezing rain. I guess nature balanced things out after giving us an unexpected burst of snow by sparing us a decent ice storm.
# 5

[February 22, 2008 7:49 AM]

Kevin Myatt
Were on the same wavelength -- I was posting a new blog entry about the Tenn/Ky. moisture coming our way just as you posted this comment. Dew points have risen into the 20s, so we won't say as much evaporational cooling as we would have last night when the dew point was 10.
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Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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