...Advertisement...

...Advertisement...

Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

So ... what about Thursday?

Posted Jan30, 2007 at 09:49 AM

day3icemapsmall0130.gif

A moderately strong low pressure system is expected to develop in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and track east-northeastward, then more northeastward. This is generally a very favorable track for a significant winter storm in our area. The question of what kind of winter storm ... snow, sleet, ice or a mix ... is, as is common still a couple days out from an event, harder to answer. The inset map reflects the current thinking of government meteorologists in Washington of the threat of significant ice (.25 inch or more) in our area ... the green zone a moderate risk, the blue a slight risk. (Click here for bigger version of map) However, as shown in this map, we are also at the very southern tip of the slight risk area for heavy snow (4-plus inches).

It all depends on the exact track and strength of the storm. A more southerly track keeps more cold air in aloft, leaning the precipitation toward snow with some sleet mixed in, while a more northerly track would allow warm air to surge in aloft, creating more freezing rain. A stronger storm would also wrap more warm air in, producing more ice and sleet, while a somewhat weaker storm would be less capable of scouring out the cold air aloft and allow more snow to fall.

At this point ... it does look like this will be a stronger and wetter system than the sleety slush of Jan. 21, and we've had more time to get things cold. So travel troubles appear likely Thursday and Thursday night.

No comments yet

Post a comment





Search


Weather bulletins

Monthly archives

Categories

Related links

From the Weather Channel

Conditions and storms

Other local weather sites

Special packages

Kevin Myatt's weather columns

About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

E-mail Kevin

RSS feed

.....Advertisement.....