Various opinions on ThursdayPosted Jan31, 2007 at 10:05 AMLet's see. The National Weather Service is, for now, holding off on winter storm watches and sticking to an inch of snow plus mix on top. A Weather Channel local forecast I saw this morning was calling for 2-4 inches. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has us in a slight risk of 4-plus inches of snow AND a slight risk of a quarter-inch of ice, with the moderate risk zone not far to the southeast. One private meteorologist's map I saw this morning, an early guess by Leesburg-based Dave Tolleris, suggests at least a possibility of 3-8 inches of snow. And that's not counting what any local television meteorologists are saying. It's the Tower of Babel typical the day before a winter storm in our area. And for good reason: It is confusing. So many different layers of the atmosphere than can vary a degree or two, storm tracks that can drift a few miles here and there, any slight changes in which can change everything. Suffice it to say: This looks a solid hit of winter precipitation, and probably a little wetter and colder than last time. Probably more snow than Jan. 21, though how much is still up in the air. I guessed 2-4 inches last night, and have no reason to change yet. Arrival time is equally as confusing, but mid-late morning for the serious precipitation (more than flurries) seems possible. I'm a little leery, though, because these overrunning precipitation events, with moisture overriding cold air at the surface, seem to arrive faster and heavier than the forecast models show them. I hope to break things down a little better for you this evening. |
About this blog
Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States." .....Advertisement.....
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