One of the reports I found was a 1999 report (which you can read HERE) from the U.S. Justice Department that included a study of the impacts, from 1994 through 1996, of the 1994-2004 federal Assault Weapons Ban.
I haven’t gotten to part covering the the impact (or not) on crime, but I was very interested in what the report had to say about the firearms market. Check this out:
Primary market prices of the banned guns and magazines rose by upwards of 50 percent during 1993 and 1994, while the ban was being debated in Congress. Gun distributors, dealers, and collectors speculated that the banned weapons would become expensive collectors’ items. However, prices fell sharply after the ban was implemented. Exhibit 4 shows price trends for a number of firearms. Prices for
banned AR–15 rifles, exact copies, and legal substitutes at least doubled in the year preceding the ban, fell to near 1992 levels once the ban took effect, and remained at those levels at least through mid-1996. …
These trends suggest that the preban price and production increases reflected speculation that grandfathered weapons and magazines in the banned categories would become profitable collectors’ items after the ban took effect. Instead, assault weapons prices fell sharply within months after the ban was in place, apparently under the combined weight of preban overproduction of grandfathered guns and the
introduction of new legal substitute guns at that time.”
I’m not saying that this will happen again. But, history tends to be a pretty good teacher. And, remember this, the investments didn’t pay off even after the ban took effect. What might the impact be if efforts to implement a new federal ban fail altogether? (Which even most supporters of Sen. Feinstein’s bill are predicting.)
So what I am saying is that, if you’ve got your name on a waiting list for an AR, I wouldn’t be sweating it too much.